State Electoral Dynamics: Unpacking the Contests in Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha, and Andhra Pradesh

While General Elections in India decide national leadership, Assembly Elections are state-centric, choosing representatives for the state legislatures. India is bracing itself for a remarkable electoral affair this year with several states scheduled for assembly elections. In this article, we delve deeper into the current dynamics of the elections in four states –  Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha and Andhra Pradesh. We will be highlighting the current dynamics and populist measures, while focusing majorly on the phenomenon of anti-incumbency. 

Anti-incumbency in politics refers to the phenomenon where voters express dissatisfaction or disillusionment with the incumbent government or ruling party. It, thus, might lead to voters choosing to support opposition parties or candidates in elections, contributing to shifts in political power.

Sikkim

This geo-strategically significant state displays a strong competition between the ruling party, Sikkim Krantikari Morcha (SKM),  and the opposition parties Sikkim Democratic Front (SDF) and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The incumbent government, SKM, has revealed a manifesto with nine guarantees for social upliftment, focusing on issues like dignity, education, and empowerment. Meanwhile, the BJP aims to secure a position in the state by campaigning for the ideology of nationalism and welfare measures. However, regional parties are wary of BJP’s possible expansion, fearing the dilution of Sikkim’s unique identity and rights as stated in Article 371 F of the Indian Constitution. The presence of anti-incumbency and the establishment of BJP’s ambitious plans are certainly creating a competitive environment in Sikkim. 

Arunachal Pradesh

There has been a rise in anti-incumbent sentiment against the ruling party, BJP, with an augmented concern for transparency and accountable governance. The opposition- National People’s Party (NPP) has unveiled its plans focusing on development, youth employment, and combating drug menace. Voters, thus, will be keeping a close watch on each party’s ability to address the challenges inherent in the state’s political landscape. 

Odisha

Biju Janata Dal has been in power in Odisha for a persistent 24 years. However, there seems to be a presence of an anti-incumbent sentiment developing in the electoral environment. To address this, the BJD government has launched several welfare schemes such as the Mukhya Mantri Karma Tatpara Abhiyan (MUKTA), the PEETHA scheme, and the Nua-O scholarship scheme. The opposition parties, the BJP and Indian National Congress (INC) are striving to secure a place in the state, with BJP establishing a stronger foothold according to recent surveys. The possibility of an alliance between BJP and BJD was actually in the works, with just weeks left for the elections. Despite the efforts to form a coalition, this endeavor didn't come to fruition, and the parties decided to contest individually. 

Andhra Pradesh

The ruling party- YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) seems to face strong opposition from Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and Jana Sena Party (JSP). Additionally, various communities and social groups are playing a noteworthy role in politics. Despite the launch of numerous schemes by the ruling party, there is a presence of anti-incumbency against YSRCP. The introduction of schemes, rivalry between political players and caste dynamics are sure to ensure interesting outcomes in the state. 

All in all, we see common elements of anti-incumbent sentiment and populist measures to win over voters in these assembly elections. The effectiveness of the current governments in addressing public concerns, alongside the efforts of opposition parties to capitalize on the anti-incumbent sentiment among voters will play a pivotal role in shaping the electoral results.

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Assembly Elections-  https://indianexpress.com/elections/india-assembly-elections-2024-a-list-of-states-heading-to-the-polls-9158632/

Anti Incumbency- https://www.livemint.com/news/india/what-data-tells-us-about-anti-incumbency-in-india-11606115362105.html

Article 371 F of the Indian Constitution- https://www.civilsdaily.com/news/what-is-article-371f/

SKM Manfiesto- https://www.eastmojo.com/sikkim/2024/04/06/sikkim-skm-unveils-manifesto-for-state-assembly-lok-sabha-polls/

BJP Manifesto- Sikkim- https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/elections/assembly-elections/sikkim/sikkim-bjp-manifesto-key-announcements-and-highlights/articleshow/109212221.cms?from=mdr

NPP Manifesto- https://npparunachal.org/manifesto/

Arunachal Pradesh- Drug Menace- https://arunachaltimes.in/index.php/2023/01/24/the-drug-menace-in-northeast-india/#:~:text=The%20menace%20of%20drug%20addiction%20has%20spread%20fast,20%20percent%20higher%20than%20other%20states%20of%20India.

MUKTA Scheme- https://urban.odisha.gov.in/sites/default/files/2023-10/Revised%20Guidelines%20MUKTA%20%281%29_removed.pdf

YSRCP Manifesto- https://www.livemint.com/elections/ysrcp-lok-sabha-election-2024-manifesto-pension-hike-vizag-andhra-pradesh-executive-capital-jagan-mohan-reddy-amaravati-11714213245630.html

Summary 

The 2024 Assembly Election in India, mainly that of Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha and Andhra Pradesh have rising anti-incumbent sentiment inherent in the electorate which may result in a shift in political power. In Sikkim, the SKM and BJP compete amid concerns about BJP's impact on Sikkim's identity. Arunachal Pradesh sees rising anti-incumbent sentiment against BJP, while Odisha's BJD faces challenges despite welfare schemes. In Andhra Pradesh, the ruling party YSRCP faces strong opposition along with the engagement of various social groups in politics. These elections, thus, highlight anti-incumbency and populist measures.